Probabilities on Likely Supreme Court Healthcare Rulings

From a Citi analysis.  Probability that the Supreme Court’s healthcare ruling will….

Strike everything: 15%
Uphold everything: 30%
Strike mandate, strike insurance reforms; uphold Medicaid expansion: 30%
Strike just the individual mandate; uphold Medicaid expansion: 10%
Strike mandate, strike insurance reforms, strike Medicaid expansion: 10%
Strike the individual mandate, strike Medicaid expansion: 5%

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