President Obama was on five Sunday morning news shows pitching his healthcare reform package, and the question is whether this unprecedented media blitz will win public support for reform.
If past Gallup poll data are any indication, the answer is no.
Take, for example, the President’s recent speech to a joint session of Congress. That impassioned defense of reform appears to have had little to no effect on public opinion. Notes Gallup (from a poll released Sept. 16):
Americans — who were divided on healthcare reform legislation before President Obama addressed Congress last week — remain so after the speech. Part of this stems from deep partisan divisions, with the vast majority of Republicans opposed to reform and the vast majority of Democrats in favor.
Another example: Remember all those heated Town Hall meetings over the summer – that whole ugly spectacle? It had little to no impact on Americans’ views about reform. Writes Gallup (from a poll released Sept. 8):
A month of town-hall meetings across the country during Congress’ August recess has hardly budged Americans’ views about passing a healthcare reform bill, or helped many more Americans form an opinion. The public is as divided over healthcare reform today as at the beginning of August (37% in favor and 39% opposed), with a large segment still undecided.
In other words, Americans weren’t moved by the shouters at Town Halls, and they weren’t moved by Obama’s cool, reasoned debate. More broadly, Gallup notes:
It is unclear how much success the president and other healthcare reform proponents will have in changing Americans’ philosophical views about healthcare, which are probably more fundamental to their worldviews and therefore resistant to change.
My conclusion is that we’re going to get the Baucus reform plan – i.e., a fairly watered down version of Obama’s original vision (which itself was a compromise aimed at avoiding serious consideration of single-payer healthcare).
All of which means we’re going to have to go through this all over again in the not-too-distant future.
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