Last week, IMS issued a report predicting that the pharmaceutical market will grow only by 2.5 % to 3.5% in 2009. Emerging markets will do much better, with the Chinese market becoming the third largest in the world (it is currently sixth) by 2011.
The reasons for the slow growth include overall weak economies, patent expirations and the reduction in number of blockbusters. The latter point is being debated among “experts,” some of whom claim that the era of big blockbusters is over.
It is true that in the near future there are few blockbusters on the horizon; although predicting the success of a future drug is notoriously an inexact science. It is also true that most pharmaceutical companies have adjusted their models to include more drugs with lesser sales due to lower populations affected.
On the other hand, any effective treatment for chronic diseases such as Alzheimer’s or atherosclerosis, or preventive measures such as vaccines for large populations, will be a huge market success.
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