A Hospital’s Market Clout and the Cost of Healthcare

August 29, 2008

Not-for-profit hospitals may be hurting overall, as Standard & Poor’s recently reported, but Carilion Health System of Roanoke, VA, is among the hospitals able to utilize its dominant position to drive pricing and profits, according to an article in yesterday’s Wall Street Journal.  The merger of Carilion with Roanoke’s other hospital in 1989 created what critic’s claim (and what Carilion denies) is a monolopy in the local market that is driving up healthcare costs, the Journal article says.  Writes the Journal:

“The cost of health care in the Roanoke Valleya region in southwestern Virginia with a population of 300,000is soaring. Health-insurance rates in Roanoke have gone from being the lowest in the state to the highest.

“That’s partly a reflection of Carilion’s prices. Carilion charges $4,727 for a colonoscopy, four to 10 times what a local endoscopy center charges for the procedure. Carilion bills $1,606 for a neck CT scan, compared with the $675 charged by a local imaging center.

“Carilion’s market clout is manifest in other ways. With eight hospitals, 11,000 employees and $1 billion in assets, the tax-exempt hospital system has become one of the dominant players in the Roanoke Valley’s economy. Its dozens of subsidiaries include businesses ranging from athletic clubs to a venture-capital fund.”

Carilion is now trying to convert to a clinic model, angering local doctors who wish to remain independent, the Journal reports, and also plays hardball with patients who can’t afford to pay their bills. 

Of course, there are other hospital systems that dominate local areas—systems built in part as a response to the growth of managed care.  What’s interesting is that from 1991 through 2007 managed care premiums nationwide rose about 6% to 8% annually.  That encompasses years like 2003, when rates rose nearly 15%, as well as years like 1995, when rates actually fell slightly.  The figures are based on CRG’s annual survey of employers, health plans and employer coalitions.

Looking at it another way, per capita expenditures on healthcare in the U.S. have risen at a compounded annual rate of about 6% to 7% since 1970.

As I noted in an opinion piece two years ago, “So what caused the wild premium swings of the last decade?  The short answer is managed care.  We’re all familiar with the chain of events.  HMOs squeezed providers and limited access to care in the early 1990s and successfully drove down the rate of increase in costs.

“Then came the HMO backlash.  Consumers demanded open access.  Hospitals consolidated into health systems with negotiating clout.  Managed care plans—bleeding red ink in part because of an inability to control costs, in part from underpricing to win market share—did the predictable; they raised rates to avoid going out of business. 

“So after nearly two decades of bitter and destructive battles between health plans, consumers, providers, regulators and legislators, we sit here in 2007 with healthcare premiums still rising at about the same annual level as over the past 17 years and costs rising at about the same annual level as over the past 37 years.  The expectation is for national healthcare expenditures to rise a tad over 7% annually for the next five to six years as well.”

Not a pretty picture, no matter who you’re pointing fingers at.


Betting on Healthcare Stocks

August 29, 2008

Here’s a brief video interview on TheStreet.com with Kelli Hill, portfolio manager, Old Mutual Large Cap Growth fund, discussing her investments in Johnson & Johnson and other healthcare companies.


Obama to Nation: I Will Heal Thee!

August 29, 2008

In his speech last night accepting the Democratic nomination for President, Barack Obama called for universal health care and slammed insurance companies that discriminate against the sick and dying.  Said Obama: “Now is the time to finally keep the promise of affordable, accessible health care for every single American.  If you have health care, my plan will lower your premiums.  If you don’t, you’ll be able to get the same kind of coverage that members of Congress give themselves.  And as someone who watched my mother argue with insurance companies while she lay in bed dying of cancer, I will make certain those companies stop discriminating against those who are sick and need care the most.”  Here’s the full text.


Managed Dental Market Still Tight

August 28, 2008

A report from Corporate Research Group, publisher of this blog, says that “competition among managed dental plans is becoming more intense as the market matures, leading to consolidation and pricing pressures.  In addition, managed care organizations are expanding their specialty businesses and bringing dental benefits in-house.”

According to the report, title, Outlook for Specialty Health Benefits, managed dental companies are expected to cover 21.8 million dental HMO lives in 2008, up 0.5% from 21.7 million in 2007.  Revenues will grow 3.9% to an estimated $3.865 billion, report says.


Clinton (Bill) Takes Shot at McCain and Insurance Industry

August 28, 2008

In his presentation to the Democratic national convention last night, former President Bill Clinton said that Republican candidate John McCain wants, “More band-aids for health care that will enrich insurance companies, impoverish families and increase the number of uninsured.”  Here’s the full text, which includes a few other remarks on healthcare, and below is the full video.


Are CDHPs Saving Money?

August 28, 2008

Are consumer-directed health plans saving money?  The results are modest, benefit consultant Milliman says its Summer 2008 issue of Health Perspectives:

“At first glance, CDHPs appear to deliver dramatic savings.  Looking more closely, however, many of the cost reductions are the result of favorable risk characteristics….The risk profile of the population choosing CDHPs is younger and healthier.  This is not surprising and could well be cause for further caution…. 

“After normalizing for risk factors, CDHP-allowed claims are about 4.8% lower than would be predicted by typical risk and benefit-design factors.  Because high-deductible plans would be expected to lower utilization by 3.3% for these plan designs, the excess savings beyond those anticipated by all actuarial factors are about 1.5%.  The savings, while modest, show that CDHPs have some inherent cost-reducing potential.”


Rounding Up Some Comments on the Decline in Uninsured in 2007

August 28, 2008

As we reported earlier this week, the U.S. Census Bureau released data (full report) showing that the number of people without health insurance fell nearly 3% to 45.7 million in 2007, with the entire improvement coming from government-sponsored programs as opposed to market-based solutions.

Here’s what some industry representatives, researchers, politicians, and policy wonks had to say about the results:

Karen Davis, president, The Commonwealth Fund: “Today’s data release shows the importance of the nation’s safety net insurance system—Medicaid and the State Children’s Health Insurance Program.” (press release)

Karen Ignagni, chief executive, America’s Health Insurance Plans: “While the Census Bureau reports a modest decline in the uninsured rate, this does not reduce the urgency of the crisis….We need coverage for all Americans, coverage they can afford, and coverage they can keep.” (press release)

Nancy Nielsen, M.D., president, American Medical Assn.: “Employer-based health insurance is no longer an option for many workers and their families, as employment-based coverage continued to decline in 2007, dropping to 59.3 percent….We advocate for a shift in tax incentives for health insurance so lower-income Americans get money to purchase coverage. We also want insurance market reforms to provide individuals more choices and ensure coverage for high-risk patients.”

U.S. Senator John McCain (R-AZ): “My health care plan will substantially reduce the rolls of the uninsured by providing a $5,000 per family refundable tax credit that will help more Americans get the coverage they need or maintain the coverage they already have.” (press release)

U.S. Senator Barack Obama (D-IL): “Between 2000 and 2007, an additional 7.2 million Americans have fallen into the ranks of the uninsured. This is the largest increase in the number of people without health insurance of any Presidential Administration on record. ” (press release)

Jared Bernstein, senior economist, Economic Policy Institute (as quoted in the New York Times): “The data in this report refer to last year, when everything was different….This year, we’re losing jobs on a monthly basis, inflation is running well over 5 percent, and unemployment was last seen at 5.7 percent and rising.”

Devon Herrick, health economist, National Center for Policy Analysis: “Despite claims that there is a health insurance crisis in the United States, the number of U.S. residents without health insurance actually fell in 2007….The slight increase in the number of uninsured over the past decade is largely due to immigration and population growth—and to individual choice.” (press release)


Tough Times for Not-for-Profit Hospitals

August 28, 2008

Standard & Poor’s said a new report “Tough Times Take a Toll on Credit Quality of U.S. Not-for-Profit Health Care Sector” that it expects continued deterioration in the margins, balance sheets and therefore credit ratings of not-for-profit hospitals.  Writes S&P: “Credit quality in the U.S. not-for-profit health care sector continues to shift downward…Due to the sector’s weakened financial metrics, there has been an increase in negative rating changes and outlooks in the first half of this year….Standard & Poor’s expects the number of downgrades to exceed upgrades for the rest of 2008 and probably in 2009, as business and financial challenges squeeze operating margins and weaken balance sheets.”  S&P blames the margin squeeze on “shifing payer mixes toward greater dependence on government payers, increasing self-pay burdens, rising bad debt, business volume concerns, and difficulty in recruiting and retaining physicians.”


Hillary Talks Healthcare in Denver

August 27, 2008

As expected, Hillary Clinton had a lot to say about healthcare last night in her speech at the Democratic national convention.  Here’s the full text courtesy of the New York Times, and below is the video version.  Some of her healthcare-related comments, which received wide applause, included the following:

- “I will always remember the single mom who had adopted two kids with autism. She didn’t have any health insurance, and she discovered she had cancer. But she greeted me with her bald head, painted with my name on it, and asked me to fight for health care for her and her children.”

- “I will always remember the young man in a Marine Corps T-shirt who waited months for medical care. And he said to me, “Take care of my buddies. A lot of them are still over there. And then will you please take care of me?”

- “I cannot wait to watch Barack Obama sign into law a health care plan that covers every single American.”


Healthcare at 30% of GDP? So What?

August 27, 2008

An interesting take on rising healthcare costs appears in the book The Trillion Dollar Meltdown: Easy Money, High Rollers and the Great Credit Crash (PublicAffairs, 2008), by Charles Morris.  The book is a wonderfully cogent take on the sub-prime mortgage meltdown.  But it also addresses larger themes, including a call for stepped up regulation of financial markets and the likelihood of a pendulum swing toward increased government participation in healthcare.  Writes Morris:

“Economic theory, in fact, suggest that health care should be expanding rapidly.  The richer you get, the more you are likely to favor life-extending spending over additional consumption.  The extra enjoyment from one more toy, in other words, can’t begin to match up against an extra year of life to enjoy all of your toys.  Even at moderate-to-low rates of economic growth, there is no reason why the economy couldn’t support the expansion of health care to 25 percent or 30 percent of GDP, as I expect will happen by 2030 or so….

“But having said all that, American health care is also extremely wasteful and is an operational mess.  At twice the per capital level of spending as in other advanced countries, we are not getting a good deal.  Much of the problem stems from the insistence that health care is just like any other consumer market.  It’s not….

“I won’t speculate on possible solutions, but they will inevitably involve an expansion of government.  We should stop fighting ideological battles over whether government should have any role and start concentrating on how to make it effective and efficient.”


Aetna’s Ron Williams on CNBC

August 27, 2008

Our candidate for the smartest guy in managed care talks about his meeting with Presidential hopeful Barack Obama in this video with CNBC’s Dylan Ratigan.  It’s from July 31, 2008, but with Obama in Denver ready to officially accept the Democratic nomination we thought it was appropriate to post.


Don’t Fear the Reaper; But as for the Blue Screen of Death…

August 27, 2008

 


Improving Trends for New Drug Development

August 27, 2008

Data from Boston-based Paraxel International Corp. (press release), which helps drug companies develop and launch new medications, shows that in 2007 the FDA received 28 applications for the marketing of new molecular entities—i.e., drugs that include an active ingredient never before approved for sale in the U.S.  That’s up 33% from 21 NME marketing applications in 2006.  On the downside, only 16 NMEs were approved in 2007, a “many-year low,” Paraxel said.  Still, Paraxel’s Mark Mathieu noted that the increase in NME marketing applications is an encouraging sign for a biopharma industry struggling to bring new product through the pipeline and to market.

Writes Mathieu in Parexel’s US Drug Approval Trends and Yearbook 2008/2009: “Even as the pharmaceutical industry’s research and development pipelines swelled to all-new records once again in 2008, new drug launches, the very lifeblood of the industry, continued to languish….Clearly, 2007 did nothing to allay concerns over the dearth of new drug launches….At the same time, there are a number of encouraging signs.  The pharmaceutical industry continues to hit new records for the number of drugs under development.  In 2007, for example, the number of new FDA-regulated clinical trial starts jumped 11.6% to yet another record.  More importantly, the databases that track the number of drugs in development have begun to see significant growth in the all-important Phase 3 clinical trial pipeline.”


The Cost of the Uninsured

August 26, 2008

Interesting analysis in Health Affairs suggesting that “the cost of expanding coverage to the 16 percent of Americans who are uninsured would add 5 percent to national health spending.”  Authors Jack Hadley, John Holahan, Teresa Coughlin, and Dawn Miller write: ”People uninsured for any part of 2008 spend about $30 billion out of pocket and receive approximately $56 billion in uncompensated care while uninsured. Government programs finance about 75 percent of uncompensated care. If all uninsured people were fully covered, their medical spending would increase by $122.6 billion. The increase represents 5 percent of current national health spending and 0.8 percent of gross domestic product.”


Number of Uninsured Falls

August 26, 2008

Good news on the uninsured front.  The U.S. Census Bureau reported (full report) that the number of people without health insurance fell nearly 3% to 45.7 million in 2007, compared to 47 million in 2006.  No doubt you can thank the consumer-driven healthcare revolution for increasing the availability and affordability of health insurance through competitive market-based solutions aimed at a growing number of Americans.  Actually, no.  Rather, the number of people enrolled in government-sponsored health insurance programs accounted for the entire improvement, increasing by 2.7 million to 83 million in 2007.  The best part?  The number of unsinsured children fell 7%.  Enrollment in private health insurance, i.e., the market-based stuff, was pretty much unchanged.


United’s Optum Tops $600 Million in HSA Assets

August 26, 2008

Say what you want about HSAs, but they are bringing in the deposits.  UnitedHealth’s OptumHealth Bank reported (press release) that it has surpassed the $600 million mark in total HSA assets (deposits and mutual fund investments), up 50% from a year ago.  Optum and rival HSA Bank have been running pretty much neck and neck for the number one spot in total HSA assets.  Other leaders include ACS/Mellon, JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo.  Our own internal tally of 21 top HSA banks shows total assets of nearly $3 billion as of March 31, 2008.


Is The ePrescribing Revolution Finally Here?

August 26, 2008

We’ve been asking this question for about a decade now.  And every time we hook up with Glen Tullman, chairman of e-prescribing company Allscripts Healthcare Solutions, we ask him.  The stock market still blows hot and cold on the concept.  Despite recent gains, shares in Allscripts are down about 26% for the year.  But given some favorable tailwinds driving e-prescribing, we thought you might be interested in this Aug. 25, 2008 video of Tullman being interviewed by Jim Cramer on Mad Money about the future of Allscripts.  And for additional perspective, here’s our video interview  of Tullman back in October 2007 at the Nasdaq Market Site covering some similar themes.


In The ‘You’ve Got To Be Kidding’ Category

August 26, 2008

The readers of Modern Healthcare have voted Revolution Health chairman and America Online founder Steve Case this year’s most powerful man in healthcare.  I guess controlling an 18-month-old web site built largely on acquisitions makes you pretty powerful these days. 

Don’t get me wrong.  I’m sure Case is a spirited entrepreneur and a man with a vision.  And his RevolutionHealth.com health and wellness site is piling up the usage stats.  But the most powerful man in healthcare?  That’s a stretch.  It’s a stretch even if you include Revolution’s investments in retail clinic provider RediClinic and online health insurance agent Extend Health.  Frankly, I’d like to know which if any of these operations are actually making money.  Memo to Steve: please email me a balance sheet and an income statement. 

By the way, number two on this year’s list is Eric Schmidt, chairman of Google.  Number three: Bill Gates, chairman of Microsoft.  Both Google and Microsoft are trying to do something philosophically similar to Revolution, i.e., increase the role of technology and consumerism in healthcare. 

You certainly can’t rule out these big boys.  But there’s an awful a lot of hype here.  Remind me again how Microsoft has fared over the years in content development, cable television, interactive TV, and its hostile bid for Yahoo!  And how did the merger of AOL and Time Warner fare at the nexus of online, media and entertainment?  Yeah, that’s what I thought.


Kennedy Pounds Podium for Obama and Healthcare

August 26, 2008

U.S. Sen. Edward Kennedy (D-MA), who is battling brain cancer, gave an impassioned speech (full text) at the Democratic national convention in Denver last night calling for universal healthcare and supporting Barack Obama for President.  Said Kennedy: “This is the cause of my life-new hope that we will break the old gridlock and guarantee that every American-north, south, east, west, young, old-will have decent, quality health care as a fundamental right and not a privilege.  We can meet these challenges with Barack Obama.”


Having Trouble Paying Your Healthcare Bills? You’re Not Alone

August 25, 2008

A study from the Commonwealth Fund titled “Losing Ground: How the Loss of Adequate Health Insurance Is Burdening Working Families” says that “In 2007, nearly two-thirds of U.S. adults, or an estimated 116 million people, struggled to pay medical bills, went without needed care because of cost, were uninsured for a time, or were underinsured (i.e., were insured but not adequately protected from high medical expenses).”

Among the study’s other findings:

  • “In 2007, more than one-quarter (28%) of U.S. adults, or an estimated 50 million people, were uninsured for some time during the past year. This is up from 24 percent of adults, or 38 million people, who were uninsured for part of 2001.”
  • “Families with incomes under $20,000 report the highest uninsured rates: half went without insurance for a time during 2007.”
  • “The proportion of adults—both insured and uninsured—that spent large shares of their income on out-of-pocket medical expenses and premiums climbed between 2001 and 2007. One-third of adults spent 10 percent or more of their income on health insurance and health care, up from 21 percent in 2001.”
  • “The share of adults who reported problems getting needed health care because of costs increased dramatically between 2001 and 2007, rising to 45 percent, up from 29 percent.”
  • “One-third (34%) of adults reported they experienced one of three care coordination problems: test results or medical records not being available at the time of a scheduled appointment, receiving duplicate medical tests, and experiencing delays in being notified about abnormal lab or diagnostic test results.”

The Obama Healthcare Plan Stinks! No, The McCain Plan Stinks!

August 25, 2008

Jay Khosla, mouthpiece on healthcare for John McCain, and David Cutler, mouthpiece on healthcare for Barack Obama, debated the role of government in healthcare with The Wall Street Journal.  A transcript of the debate ran in today’s Journal.  It’s about what you’d expect.  Khosla (McCain) wants market competition to reduce healthcare costs.  Cutler (Obama) wants a bigger role for government.  They each slam the other camp’s healthcare proposals pretty hard.  Read it and weep.  It’s a perfect example of why if you really want to understand the healthcare crisis and how to solve it, don’t listen to these guys.  Do your own homework.


Speaking of Rising Healthcare Costs

August 25, 2008

A survey from Aon Consulting found that employers can expect healthcare claims costs to rise 10.6% over the next 12 months before benefit buydowns.  Aon surveyed more than 70 leading health plans representing 100 million lives.  The survey found HMO costs are expected to rise 10.6%, POS plans 10.5%, PPOs 10.7% and consumer-directed plans 10.5%.  The rate of increase is slightly slower than in 2008, Aon said.  Prescription drug costs are expected to rise 9.2% and specialty pharmacy 12.2%. 

That’s pretty much in line with gloomy projections released by PriceWaterhouseCoopers in its annual report, “Behind the Numbers, Medical Cost Trends for 2009,” which expects employers to experience medical cost increases of 9.9% in 2008 and 9.6% in 2009.  What’s more, PWC said, the recent trend of deceleration in healthcare cost trends appears to be ending.


Medicare Is ‘Running on Empty’

August 25, 2008

You can find a thoughtful—albeit thoroughly depressing—analysis of the financial problems facing Medicare (and Social Security) in the book “Where Does the Money Go?  Your Guided Tour to the Federal Budget Crisis“  (HarperCollins, 2008), by Scott Bittle and Jean Johnson. 

The authors write, “The part of Medicare that covers hospital costs for older Americans already pays out more than it takes in from payroll taxes….Medicare already collect taxes on nearly everything everyone earns….Older people already pay monthly premiums to cover doctor’s visits (Medicare Part B), premiums that increased annually by double digits from 2001 to 2006….We’re not trying to suggest that raising Medicare taxes, premiums, and fees should be off the table….But politically speaking, the system has already been there and done that….

“The big wrinkle here is that we haven’t yet come up with foolproof ways to hold down health care costs without harming patients or thwarting new medical breakthroughs.  In the last couple of decades, experts have pinned their cost-cutting hopes on HMOs, preferred provider plans, more preventive care, and other ideas, but health care costs have continued to climb.”


A Look at Drug Industry Job Cuts

August 25, 2008

Here’s another job-cuts-are-a-good-thing analysis, this one by The Motley Fool, which takes a look at the recent round of layoffs by top pharma companies Abbott, Amgen, Schering-Plough and Wyeth.  Says the Fool, “Abbott’s cuts are particularly interesting because the company doesn’t seem to be in trouble, like the other drugmakers mentioned are….The company is clearly trying to increase margins, even in good times, and that’s definitely something investors should be looking for in a company.”


Horizon BCBS, WellPoint Speculation Begins

August 25, 2008

The ink is barely dry on the announcement by Horizon Blue Cross Blue Shield of New Jersey that it is seeking to convert to for-profit status and already Wall Street is speculating about a possible acquisition by Blues aggregator WellPoint, as this article in today’s Wall Street Journal shows.  Given that WellPoint already owns Empire Blue Cross Blue Shield of New York, a deal does make sense.  Frankly, our view is that WellPoint would jump at the chance of making a big splash by buying Horizon.  WellPoint shares are down nearly 40% year-to-date.  But before you get too excited, a Horizon conversion is far from a done deal—never mind a sale to WellPoint.  No doubt, there’s a lot a regulatory wrangling still ahead.


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